The results of the Divisional Round were tough for fans like myself…

…but great for the average NFL fan.

While everyone loves a Cinderella story, it’s a treat to NFL fans that the final four teams alive are pretty undisputedly the four best teams in the league. Many people were high on the Colts, but the Chiefs took care of them easily and reminded everyone how good they are. The Cowboys loss was tough, as the Rams showed why they went 13-3 and ran all over the Cowboys defense which had just shut down the team with the most rushing yards this season. The home team proving they were the better team was the theme of the weekend, as the Pats smacked the Chargers early Sunday. The week concluded with the Eagles incredible run coming to an end at the hands of the Saints. While I would love more than anything for the Cowboys to be playing, I’m still very excited for the weekend upcoming.

Just like the regular season, the playoffs have been a struggle for me. I went 2-2 outright, and 1-3 against the spread. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Colts at Chiefs (-4.5)

My Pick: Chiefs 27, Colts 20

• Chiefs 31, Colts 13– Switched this pick once the spread got closer and the weather appeared like it was going to be a factor. Good thing I did or I would have laid a goose egg ATS.

Cowboys (+7) at Rams

My Pick: Cowboys 27, Rams 24

• Rams 30, Cowboys 22– Not only do the Boys lose, but I miss the cover/push by a point.

Chargers (+4) at Patriots

My Pick: Chargers 24, Patriots 21

• Patriots 41, Chargers 28– I still don’t know how this happened. Why can the Pats beat everyone in the playoffs except NFC East teams?

Eagles at Saints (-8.5)

My Pick: Saints 31, Eagles 17

• Saints 20, Eagles 14– When the Saints missed that late field goal, not only did we lose the cover, but I was sure the Eagles were gonna win too. Thank god for Alshon Jeffrey.

3 games to go.

Rams at Saints (-3)

Saints 28, Rams 24

• Just like the Chiefs and Pats, the Rams reminded us just how good they were last weekend by defeating the Cowboys pretty easily
• The Saints started slow, but dominated the final 3 quarters and held on to knock off the defending champion Eagles
• The Saints are now 6-0 in home playoff games in the Brees/Payton era
• This spread indicates they are as even of teams as it gets
• They did win and cover last week, but I once again note the Rams are 3-3 outright and 1-5 ATS this season against the other NFC playoff teams, including a loss at the Saints earlier this season
• Saints have felt like a team of destiny since the start of the season
• These teams are extremely evenly matched, I think it comes down to one possession and the home team in a dome has a big advantage here. The Saints edge out a close win to head to their second Super Bowl

• These teams last met in Week 9, with the Saints defeating the then 8-0 Rams 45-35 (highlights)

• These teams last met in the postseason in the 2000 Wild Card round, with the Saints defeating the defending champion St. Louis Rams 31-28 (highlights)

Patriots at Chiefs (-3)

Chiefs 27, Patriots 20

• The Patriots were doubted a lot heading into last week going up against a team almost everyone agreed was better. But to no surprise, they then kicked the Chargers asses to head to their 8^th consecutive AFC Championship Game
• The Chiefs had a very similar week, as they dominated the high flying Colts with their defense, something we haven’t seen much of this season
• The Chiefs have put up 40+ points against the Patriots each of the last two seasons, and both of those games were in New England, where visitors rarely find success
• Last week was proof that the Pats “disappointing” regular season may mean nothing, but they are on the road this time and I think the Chiefs are definitely better than the Chargers
• Tom Brady is 8-4 in AFC Championship games, but 2-3 on the road, including 3 straight losses (2006 @Colts, 2013 and 2015 @Broncos)
• Don’t know if they Chiefs can duplicate last week’s defense performance, but if they can even get half of that, I don’t think they lose this game
• This may not be the end of the Pats run, but may be the beginning of a Chiefs run. The Chiefs will win by a score to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time in 49 years

• These teams last met in Week 6, with the Patriots defeating the then 5-0 Chiefs in a thriller, 43-40 (highlights)

• The last time these teams met in the playoffs was the 2015 Divisional Round, with the Patriots winning 27-20 (highlights)

That’s it for the Conference Championships, be back for Super Bowl LIII with prop bet picks included. Which two teams will win and earn a chance to repeat what they have all done at least once?

Wild-Card Weekend sure was wild…

…with 3 road teams winning and all 4 covering.

The Colts were by far the most impressive team of the weekend, making a statement in the early Saturday slate. The Saturday night game was arguably the best overall, with the Cowboys winning the BTB Bowl, but the Seahawks covering in an all time bad beat (more to come on that). The Chargers completely flipped the switch from Week 16 and held on late to beat the Ravens. The final game of the weekend was not the best, but had the best ending, with the Eagles scoring late before the double post field goal from Cody Parkey. The games will be less sloppy, but hope this weekend is just as wild.

The craziness led to a few bad beats and a tough weekend to pick winners. I went 1-3, both outright and against the spread. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Colts at Texans (-1.5)

My Pick: Texans 27, Colts 21

• Final Score: Colts 21, Texans 17

Seahawks at Cowboys (-2.5)

My Pick: Cowboys 24, Seahawks 20

• Final Score: Cowboys 24, Seahawks 22Great win for the Cowboys and great game, but gonna focus in on one of the worst beats of all time. I wagered on Cowboys ML, so I didn’t care of course, but the Seahawks went for 2 to cover instead of kick the extra point due to Sebastian Janikowski’s injury. Just awful

https://twitter.com/StuSource/status/1081771792304353280

Chargers at Ravens (-3)

My Pick: Ravens 23, Chargers 17

• Final Score: Chargers 23, Ravens 17Well I was right about the score… just not the teams

Eagles (+6.5) at Bears

My Pick: Bears 23. Eagles 20

• Final Score: Eagles 16, Bears 15 Was cheering for the Eagles in hopes of sending the Cowboys to LA instead of New Orleans. Had the Cowboys lost, cannot even begin to describe how angry I would have bene that the Eagles won in the way that they did

https://twitter.com/barstoolcarl/status/1082077949455749122?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1082077949455749122&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fbarstoolcarl%2Fstatus%2F1082077949455749122

We’re onto the second round.

Colts (+5.5) at Chiefs

Chiefs 31, Colts 28

• No one’s looking past the Colts any longer after their incredibly impressive 21-7 win over the Texans in Houston last weekend
• Under first year starter Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs enjoyed their best season in the Andy Reid era, going 12-4 and clinch the AFC’s top seed
• As incredible as their offense has been this season, the Chiefs defense has been pretty poor- advantage red hot Colts offense
• Colts defense has been pretty great lately too, and Mahomes has had some of his tougher games against good defense
• I have the Colts covering, but the Chiefs offense is good enough right to make up for their poor defense right now, I think they win a very competitive game by a field goal

• These teams last met in 2016 with the Chiefs winning 30-14 (highlights)

• The last playoff matchup between these two teams, the 2013 Wild-Card, was an absolute thriller with the Colts rallying from a 38-10 deficit to win 45-44 (highlights)

Cowboys (+7) at Rams

Cowboys 27, Rams 24

• Last week was the typical blueprint for a Cowboys win: low scoring first 3 quarters led by Zeke and the defense, before scoring some points and controlling the clock with some clutch and gritty play by Dak Prescott in the 4th to seal the win
• The Rams had an incredible season in their 3rd season back in Los Angeles, winning 13 games for the first time since 2001, a season in which they made the Super Bowl
• While the money line pick has some heart in it, I definitely think the Cowboys will cover
• Against the other 4 NFC playoff teams, the Rams went 2-3 outright, and 0-5 against the spread
• • They have been great this year, but the majority of their big wins have come against bad teams, while they’ve struggled with the better teams
• The stadium is going to be loaded with Cowboys fans, and the Rams (and Chargers too) have struggled a little when opposing crowds have taken over their stadiums, such as against the Packers and Eagles
• Ultimately, the Cowboys have improved as the season has went on, while the Rams have not. I see the Cowboys coming in with momentum from all of the reasons above and upsetting the Rams

• These teams last met last season, with the Rams winning 35-30 in Dallas, a game which was seen as a coming out party for the new and improved Rams (highlights)

• This is the first playoff matchup between these two teams since 1985, in which the original LA Rams beat the Cowboys 20-0 in the Wild-Card round (the teams will wear these same uniforms on Saturday)

Chargers (+4) at Patriots

Chargers 24, Patriots 21

• The Chargers returned to their dominant road selves last week, making it appear that the last time they played the Ravens was Week 1, not just two weeks prior
• The Patriots had a “down” season, yet went 11-5, clinched their 10th straight AFC East title, secured their 9th straight first round bye, and are one win away from their 8th straight AFC title game appearance
• This spread feels like a trap- Vegas is begging you to take the Chargers, and the public loves the Chargers as well
• But it was the same scenario last week at the Ravens, and the Chargers won that one
• The Patriots have a major advantage with their experience and home field, but not only does the eye test tell you the Chargers are the better team this year, but the records do too
• Going against Tom Brady is very risky, but I feel that the Chargers are just the better team now and play better on the road. I see the Chargers winning a low scoring game by a field goal

• These teams last met last season with the Patriots winning at home 21-13 (highlights)

• Tom Brady is 7-0 all time against Phil Rivers, including 2-0 in the playoffs. The last playoff matchup came in the 2007 AFC Championship, with the Patriots beating the Chargers 21-12 (Rivers played on a torn ACL) to advance to 18-0 on the season (horrible memories typing that)

Eagles at Saints (-8)

Saints 31, Eagles 17

• Nick Foles delivered the winning TD, but the story for the Eagles last week was their defense performance and a miracle to advance over the Bears to the their second straight Divisional Round
• The 2018 Saints were arguably as good as the 2009 Saints that won Super Bowl XLIV, winning 13 games and earning the NFC’s top seed
• The Eagles have now played 4 must win games in a row- it has been a major physical and emotional grind for Philly the last few weeks
• The Saints have been the best and most consistent team in the NFL this season, and while they didn’t finish the season as strong as they started, they still won 3 of their last 4 (excluding Week 17 loss) and are coming in well rested
• This will be even tougher than the Super Bowl last season, and with the Eagles obviously not as healthy this year, I don’t see Foles doing it again
• If the Cowboys win, I’ll be cheering for the Eagles, but see the Saints offensive fire power showing to win and cover over Philly

• These teams met in New Orelans in Week 13, with the Saints dominating 48-7 (highlights)

• These teams last met in playoffs in the 2013 Wild-Card Round, with Drew Brees and the Saints beating Nick Foles and the Eagles 26-24 in Philly (highlights)

That’s all for the Divisional Round, be back for Championship Sunday.

In January 1996, the Cowboys won their 3rd Super Bowl in 4 years. In July 1996, I was born. Can the Cowboys stun the Rams to go to the NFC Championship for the first time in my life?

In Week 17, the Indianapolis Colts won on Sunday Night Football to clinch the final spot in this year’s playoffs. Fitting.

While it sucks that there won’t be another full slate of football until September, these upcoming games are the one’s we will remember forever, especially if your team is involved. This year’s Wild Card matchups are among some of the most intriguing I can ever remember. It starts on Saturday afternoon with the Colts traveling to their division rival Texans in a matchup of two teams who turned around early season struggles to both win double digit games. Then on Saturday night, in arguably the most anticipated of the weekend, we have our 3rd Below the Belt Bowl (and first in the playoffs) between Bert’s Seahawks and my Cowboys. Just like the earlier matchup, both teams were afterthoughts early in the season, and are suddenly teams that no one wants to see. While it may not be as anticipated, the early matchup Sunday may be the best of them all, with the Chargers traveling to Baltimore to take on the Ravens, who they lost to at home just two weeks ago. And finally, we end the week with another great matchup, with the defending champion Eagles traveling to take on a very dangerous Bears team in the playoffs for the first time since 2010. If you can’t tell, I’m pretty excited.

To quickly recap Week 17, it was a little less unpredictable than anticipated. I went an okay 7-9 ATS, but went a season-high 13-3 outright. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Lions at Packers (-7.5)

Cowboys (+7.5) at Giants

• Went to the Post Malone concert Saturday night, went to this game on Sunday. This tweet sums up my weekend pretty well.

https://twitter.com/Bulldog_Graphic/status/1079513268341886977

Jets (+14) at Patriots

Jaguars (+7) at Texans

Panthers (+8) at Saints

Falcons (-2.5) at Bucs

• Lucky to have Falcons +1 in my spread pool, cause this would have been a tough beat.

Dolphins (+5.5) at Bills

Eagles (-6) at Redskins

Raiders at Chiefs (-14.5)

Chargers at Broncos (+7)

Bengals (+14) at Steelers

Bears at Vikings (-6)

Cardinals at Seahawks (-14.5)

Browns (+7) at Ravens

49ers at Rams (-10.5)

Colts at Titans (+5) 

• Kept my Titans ATS picked, but switched my outright pick to Colts.

2018 Straight-Up: 156-98-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 109-136-11

Let’s make up for a tough regular season.

Colts at Texans (-1.5)

Texans 27, Colts 21 

• After starting the season 1-5, the Colts made of the greatest in-season turnarounds in NFL history, winning 9 of their last 10 games and getting great play on both sides of the ball to earn the AFC’s 6th seed.
• But don’t let that overlook the Texans turnaround. After starting off 0-3, Houston won 9 in row before finishing 11-5 and winning their 5th AFC South title in the last 8 years.
• Everything would point to these teams being pretty evenly matched, yet the home Texans are only laying 1.5 points- good value to get them at
• As great as the Colts’ second half has been, they’ve shown vulnerabilities, needing double digit comeback wins at home against the lowly Dolphins and Giants, and getting shut out in Jacksonville
• The Colts may be the better team in this rivalry in the coming years, but I think the home Texans are the better team this season and will win by less than a score to move on to New England

• These two teams split the regular season series, with the road team winning by a field goal on both occasions (Week 4 highlights, Week 14 highlights)

• This is the first playoff matchup between these two teams

Seahawks at Cowboys (-2)

Cowboys 24, Seahawks 20

• With nearly every member of the Legion of Boom gone, the Seahawks were given small odds to make the playoffs this season by most. After starting 0-2, the Seahawks beat the Cowboys in Week 3 to start an incredible run that ended at 10-6 and the NFC’s first wild card
• After starting 3-5, the future of the Cowboys’ leadership was being questioned by many. But the arrival of Amari Cooper and the strength of this defense has changed everything, as the Cowboys won 7 of their last 8 to win the NFC East for the 3rd time in 5 years
• Both teams have changed dramatically since they met in Week 3, so don’t put too much stock into what we saw that day (not just saying that because the Cowboys lost)
• The Cowboys are 7-1 at Jerry World this season, and are coming off the most meaningful meaningless game ever, with Dak Prescott balling out despite missing Zeke, Tyron Smith, and Zack Martin
• The Super Bowl winning pedigree is a big advantage for Seattle as it comes from their most important pieces (Russell Wilson, Doug Baldwin, Pete Carroll), but the rest of the team is very different from the old days, especially defensively
• Ultimately, these are two extremely evenly matched teams. 12 of the Cowboys 16 games this season were decided by a score or less, and they’re 9-3 in those games, so I like that and their home record as a big reason why they edge out a close win Saturday night

• As mentioned, these teams last met in Week 3 with the Seahawks winning 24-13 (highlights)

• These teams have met one time in the playoffs, the 2006 Wild-Card round in which the Seahawks won 21-20. This was a great game but is only remembered for one of the most infamous plays in Cowboys history

• Good luck Bert (but not really)

Chargers at Ravens (-3)

Ravens 23, Chargers 17

• The Chargers have been enjoying one of their best seasons in franchise history, going 12-4, and many people are picking them to be the first Wild Card team to win a Super Bowl since the 2010 Packers
• The Ravens first half was up and down under Joe Flacco, but since turning to rookie Lamar Jackson, the Ravens are 6-1 and locked up the AFC North title, and suddenly are a team most will not want to play
• These teams met just 2 weeks ago in Los Angeles, with the Ravens defense dominating the high powered Chargers offense
• I actually kind of like the Chargers more as a road team, but I don’t love them in this matchup
• The Ravens are small favorites, but the public has made it clear who they like- 72% on the Chargers as of Friday night
• The Ravens, like the Cowboys, have been winning close games against any team, and I like them to do the same on Sunday as they edge out the Chargers by less than a score

• As mentioned, these two teams met in Week 16 with the Ravens defense dominating to win 22-10 (highlights)

• This is the first playoff meeting between these teams

Eagles (+6.5) at Bears

Bears 23, Eagles 20

• After what they did last year, especially with a backup QB, this Eagles team has been nothing short of a disappointment this season. But to their credit, they rallied to win 5 of their last 6 games, including the last 3 in a row under Super Bowl LII MVP Nick Foles to earn the NFC’s last playoff spot
• The young Bears came mostly out of nowhere this season. With the additions of Khalil Mack and head coach Matt Nagy, and QB Mitch Trubisky’s sophomore season, the Bears put together a phenomal year, going 12-4 and winning the NFC North
• There’s truly something different about the Eagles under Nick Foles. While he may not be as talented as Carson Wentz, he brings a different animal out of this team, and he’s also been able to get weapons other than Zach Ertz more involved
• We saw what a less talented but more experienced Falcons team did to a more talented but less experienced Rams team last year in the playoffs- they domianted them
• I think the Eagles will keep up their strong play and cover in this game
• But this Bears team doesn’t play like a young and inexperienced team, as seen last week dominating the Vikings in a must win game for Minnesota, and a virtually meaningless game for the Bears
• The weekend concludes with the Bears winning by a field goal

• While this means virtually nothing, these teams last met last season with the Eagles dominating 31-3 (highlights)

• The last postseason meeting between these teams came in the 2001 Divisional Round, with the road Eagles winning 33-19

Now, here’s a look at how I think the playoffs will play out. These’s are not my final predictions, as the matchups could change and I could of course change my mind. And let’s be honest, if the Cowboys advance, you know I’m willing to live and die with them.

Wild-Card

• AFC: (4) Ravens over (5) Chargers, (3) Texans over (6) Colts
• NFC: (4) Cowboys over (5) Seahawks, (3) Bears over (6) Eagles

Divisional

• AFC: (2) Patriots over (3) Texans, (1) Chiefs over (4) Ravens
• NFC: (2) Rams over (3) Bears, (1) Saints over (4) Cowboys

Conference Championships

• AFC: (1) Chiefs over (2) Patriots
• NFC: (1) Saints over (2) Rams

Super Bowl LIII

• Saints over Chiefs

That’s it for this weekend, hopefully these games are as great as I’m expecting them to be. Who will win the latest chapter of the Below the Belt Bowl between Bert’s Seahawks and my Cowboys?

Well, safe to say that one could have gone a little better.

As great as the weekend and experience in Indianpolis was, the game was obviously a huge disappointment. While I’m not really worried and don’t think the Cowboys got dominated as badly as the media is trying to pin on them, it obviously stinks to go all the way there and see a huge down week. Besides the game, the stadium and atmosphere were awesome, and it was great to meet some players the day before, such as Demarcus Lawrence, Tyrone Crawford, Tyron Smith, and Brett Maher. At the end of the day though, the Cowboys are still highly likely to win the NFC East, and one game cannot erase the previous five.

If the Cowboys had won though, even that could not erase what was a bad Week 15 in picks. I went 7-9 straight up, and 4-11-1 against the spread. It has been a tough year for sure. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red, push in green):

Chargers at Chiefs (-4)

Texans at Jets (+7)

Browns at Broncos (-1.5)

Dolphins (+7.5) at Vikings

Lions (+3) at Bills

Redskins (+7) at Jaguars

Cowboys (+3) at Colts

Packers (+6) at Bears

Titans (-2.5) at Giants

Raiders (+3) at Bengals

Bucs at Ravens (-9)

Cardinals (+9) at Falcons

Seahawks (-4) at 49ers

Patriots (-2.5) at Steelers

Eagles at Rams (-13.5)

Saints at Panthers (+6)

2018 Straight-Up: 132-90-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 98-117-9

Last full slate of games where the majority of teams will be playing starters the whole game. Let’s make some money.

Redskins at Titans (-11)

• Titans are hot and have a great chance to steal the last wild card
• Redskins grinded out a win against the lowly Jags, but the Jaguars have no offensive threat whatsoever
• Titans D holds the Redskins to 10 points or less, offense provides a tougher test than the Jags did as the Titans rout the Redskins

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hs8LWjJqTGA

Ravens at Chargers (-3.5)

• Chargers have been the NFL’s best team of late
• Ravens have played well under Lamar Jackson, but this is the first time he will be going up against a good defense
• Chargers continue to play strong and win by a TD to cover

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7aJmewy5UYk

Bengals (+10) at Browns

• I don’t care how good the Browns have looked, them being 10 point favorites just doesn’t feel right
• Bengals have played a little better the last few games and want revenge for the beatdown they took to the Browns a few weeks ago
• Browns continue to play well and win, but Bengals cover this huge spread

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hsTIRZmJ2Y0

Bills at Patriots (-13.5)

• With home games against the Jets and Bills, the Pats couldn’t ask for two better opponents to help them get it together before the playoffs
• With the Pats likely to rest some starters in Week 17, this game is very important to put it all together
• Pats win by more than 2 TDs to cover

Giants at Colts (-9.5)

• The Colts beat the Cowboys 23-0 last week, and I could argue it wasn’t nearly as dominant of a performance as the score would indicate
• • Colts only had one long TD drive, Luck threw for under 200 yards, Cowboys had a field goal blocked and went for it twice on 4th down in the red zone which obviously could have made the score a little closer
• So if you can win 23-0 and not even dominate, that’s a good sign for your team
• Giants have every reason to lose this game, while Colts have to win
• Colts win by 2 TDs to cover

Packers (-3) at Jets

• It’s clear the Packers are not a very good team, but I’m still gonna take Aaron Rodgers over a rookie in Sam Darnold
• Packers were in the game against a great Bears team
• Jets have more reason to tank than the Packers
• Spread is perfect, but I have to choose a side so I say Packers by a TD or less, but enough to cover
• Video below is most Jets moment of all time

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfmsD9cKcD4

Vikings at Lions (+6.5)

• Public hammering MIN (67% as of Saturday)
• Vikings have not been very consistent this year
• Lions looking to play spoiler against divisional rivals and are good enough of a home team to not be getting this many points
• Vikings win by a field goal, Lions over

Texans (+2.5) at Eagles

• Everyone keeps saying this game is way bigger for the Eagles, but if the Texans lose, they likely will have to go to New England in the playoffs
• Nick Foles got the Eagles over the hump last year and shocked the Rams last week, but I don’t think the Eagles are strong enough this year for him to do it again
• Texans all but secure a first round bye with an upset win on the road

Bucs at Cowboys (-7)

• Especially after last week, the Cowboys need a game where they put it all together on offense and defense, and the Bucs are the perfect team to do so against
• The Bucs are up and down offensively, and they’ve been down the last few weeks
• Bucs D stinks and provides a great opportunity for Dak to play his best game of the season
• Cowboys dominate on both sides of the ball to crush the Bucs and win the NFC East

Falcons (-3) at Panthers

• Cam Newton is done for the season, and the Panthers offense had already been struggling even before then
• Can the Falcons finally put together two great offensive performances in a row?
• Falcons win a low scoring game by a TD to cover

Jaguars at Dolphins (-3.5)

• This is gonna be a low scoring game, but how is this spread possibly so low?
• The Jaguars just lost at home to the beat up Redskins and Cody Kessler threw for 57 yards
• Dolphins have extremely small playoff hopes
• Dolphins only laying 3.5 at home to the Jags, this is my lock of the week

Bears at 49ers (+4.5)

• Upset pick of the week
• Bears clinched the division and partied hard last week, and are most likely locked into the 3 seed
• 49ers have upset teams in similar spreads last two weeks at home
• Niners have less reason to tank than most teams since their franchise QB is out
• Niners win by a field goal to upset the Bears

Rams at Cardinals (+14.5)

• Rams have struggled the last two weeks, and have struggled to cover all year
• Really nothing positive to list about the Cardinals, but I’m almost always going to pick a team to cover a spread this big at home
• Rams win by 10-14 points as the Cardinals cover

Steelers at Saints (-6.5)

• Saints have had struggles on offense on the road the past few weeks, need to get back on track at home
• Steelers won last week after a 3 game losing streak, but it was an ugly win
• Saints have been the better team all year, especially at home, and they win by 10 to cover

Chiefs (-2.5) at Seahawks

• If the Chargers lose, I may change my pick, so check my twitter @mikejmcgon
• With the division and a bye on the line for the Chiefs if the Chargers win, this game is definitely more important for Kansas City
• If the Chiefs stopped the Chargers on 4th down or the 2-point conversion last week, our perception of the Chiefs would be much different despite nothing really being that different
• Chiefs remind everyone how good they are and win by less than a TD to cover

Broncos (-3) at Raiders

• Talk abut a barn burner, stand-alone game on Christmas Eve
• Broncos have been all but eliminated, and the Raiders are the Raiders
• I think this spread is perfect, my pick would be Broncos by a field goal
• But I have to choose a side, so I think the better team in Denver wins by less than a TD to cover

That’s it for Week 16, be back next week for the final full slate of football this season. Will the Cleveland Browns make the playoffs this season?

Between my picks, fantasy, gambling, and just straight up interest in football, most weeks I’m interested in almost every single game. This week, I really only care for one.

As you’re reading this, I’m in Indianapolis for the highly anticipated Cowboys-Colts game. When we booked this trip earlier in the season, both teams were struggling, and we said “hey at least the Cowboys will win this one”. Now, the Cowboys have all but won the NFC East, and the Colts are fighting for a playoff spot after ending the Texans 9 game win streak. So while it’s not a do or die for the Cowboys, it’s still one of the best games of the week and gets magnified by its time in the season.

My Week 14 picks weren’t terrible, but they weren’t very good either. I went 7-8, both straight up and against the spread. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Jaguars at Titans (-5.5)

Panthers (-1) at Browns

Saints at Bucs (+10)

Colts at Texans (-4)

Giants (-3) at Redskins

Ravens at Chiefs (-6.5)

Falcons at Packers (-4)

Jets at Bills (-4.5)

Dolphins (+9.5) at Patriots

• Patriots ML bettors, look away

https://twitter.com/barstoolsports/status/1071889058064945154

Broncos (-3) at 49ers

Bengals at Chargers (-16.5)

Lions at Cardinals (+2.5)

Steelers at Raiders (+10)

Eagles at Cowboys (-3)

Rams at Bears (+3)

Vikings (+3) at Seahawks

2018 Straight-Up: 125-80-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 94-105-8

Time to kill the Colts and your bookmaker in Week 15.

Chargers at Chiefs (-3.5)

• Chargers 29, Chiefs 28
• Prayers up to anyone who bet on Chiefs -3.5. I had Over 54.5, so I was rooting for my pick to lose at the very end
• 0-2 to start the week

Texans at Jets (+7)

• Jets have played competitively lately, would be huge for Sam Darnold to get some wins to end his rookie year on
• Public hammering the Texans (72% as of Friday)
• Definitely taking the Texans to win, but home Jets cover big spread

Browns at Broncos (-2.5)

• Browns have just 1 win on the road this season, and Denver can be tough for any road team
• Broncos had a let down game last week but had been playing well prior
• Better team, at home, against a bad road team only getting 2.5? Give me the Broncos by a TD

Titans (-1) at Giants

• Giants have played well of late, but they’ve defeated Nick Mullens, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chase Daniel, and Mark Sanchez
• Titans have won 2 straight and can sneak into the playoffs
• OBJ out for the Giants
• Spread has moved from Giants by 2.5 to Titans by 1, give me the Titans by a TD

Bucs at Ravens (-7.5)

• Ravens are playing well at the right time, having won 3 of 4 and nearly taking down the Chiefs at Arrowhead
• Bucs are an up and down team, last week was a big downturn after leading by 11 and failing to cover a 10 point spread
• Ravens stay hot and win by 2 TDs

Packers (+5.5) at Bears

• Aaron Rodgers wants to continue to ball out with Mike McCarthy gone
• Bears have crossed every hurdle to prove they’re a legit team, the last hurdle they have to cross is beating the Packers in a big game
• Packers fight hard against their biggest rivals to cover, but Bears are the much better team now and win by a FG

Lions (+2.5) at Bills

• The Bills have been a tough team at home this year, but I don’t think they should be laying points in this matchup
• Lions easily handled a Cardinals team coming off a game they won as 14 point underdogs
• Lions are the better team and win a close game to “upset” the Bills
• Throwback to when Jim Scwartz told his player to pick him up after beating the Lions in his first game back since being fired

Raiders (+3) at Bengals

• The Raiders aren’t good, but the last few games have proved just how much they’ve underachieved this season
• The Bengals are so beat up and their defense has been awful
• The Raiders continue to play better and pick up the upset win

Cardinals (+10) at Falcons

• I don’t care who they are playing, a Falcons team that has lost 5 in a row shouldn’t be laying 10 points
• Cardinals beat a Packers team 2 weeks ago that easily beat the Falcons last week
• Falcons have continued to find ways to lose, they’ll finally get a win at home against the Cardinals, but 10 points is way too many

Dolphins (+7.5) at Vikings

• Winning was a complete miracle, but the Dolphins are coming off a good performance, while the Vikings are coming off an incredibly disheartening performance
• Dolphins have covered similar spread against the Colts a few weeks ago and Patriots last week
• Vikings are the better team and win, but the Dolphins fight to cover and lose by less than a TD

Cowboys (+3) at Colts

• Don’t think for a second I was picking against the Cowboys in this one
• The Colts may have the better QB, but the Cowboys offense and defense is slightly better overall
• Think this spread should be closer to a Pick ‘Em
• Cowboys win a close one on the road to clinch the NFC East
• The last time the Cowboys played the Colts resulted in an NFC East title as well below

Redskins (+7.5) at Jaguars

• No matter who they are playing, a Cody Kessler lead team should not be laying a TD
• Josh Johnson can’t be worse than Mark Sanchez
• Redskins are beat up, but they’re good enough to not be getting this many points against the Jaguars
• Jags win by a FG, Redskins cover

Seahawks (-3.5) at 49ers

• This is basically the same amount of points the Broncos laid at the Niners last week, and I think everyone would agree the Seahawks are better than Denver
• Seahawks are trending in the right direction while the Niners are headed towards a top draft pick
• Seahawks have won 10 straight vs the Niners, win and cover easily in this one

Patriots (-3) at Steelers

• I don’t love that the public is hammering the Pats (75% as of Friday), but I love them in this one
• Tom Brady is 11-2 career against the Steelers
• Steelers are in a free fall and Patriots almost always win after a disappointing loss
• Pats win by less than a TD, but enough to cover

Eagles at Rams (-13)

• Rams coming off a wake up call and need to win to remain in the chase for the NFC’s top seed
• Eagles’ Super Bowl was last week and now Carson Wentz is probably done
• Rams have struggled to cover a lot this year, need a prime time game to show how good they are
• Nick Foles magic won’t be back for a second season, Rams rout the Eagles to cover

Saints at Panthers (+6.5)

• While they ended up covering last week, Saints offense has struggled two weeks in a row now
• This is an absolute must win for the Panthers
• Teams looking to avenge a 2017 playoff loss are 6-1 this season
• Panthers keep it very close in a must win situation looking for revenge, but Saints win by a FG

That’s it for Week 15, hope to head home with a Cowboys W. Will the Vikings get major revenge on the Dolphins for when former Marist Red Fox Terrence Fede won the game for Miami 4 years ago (and kept my dad alive in his suicide pool)?

In a year in which all of the league’s best teams have been winning with prolific offense, the Cowboys proved in Week 13 that defense can still win big games. The Cowboys rising defense held one of the most unstoppable single season offenses of all time to just 10 points. While I’m not convincing myself the Cowboys are going to go on a crazy run (yet), the turnaround this team has made has been awesome to watch.

So while the week started well with a Boys win and a spread win, the rest of the picks from last week weren’t great. I went a decent 10-6 outright, but I went just 5-11 against the spread. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Saints at Cowboys (+7.5)

Ravens at Falcons (-2.5)

Bears (-3.5) at Giants

Cardinals at Packers (-13.5)

Rams at Lions (+10)

Broncos (-4) at Bengals

Browns (+4.5) at Texans

Bills at Dolphins (-3.5)

Panthers at Bucs (+3.5)

Colts (-4.5) at Jaguars

Chiefs (-14) at Raiders

Jets at Titans (-10)

49ers at Seahawks (-10)

Vikings (+6) at Patriots

Chargers at Steelers (-3)

Redskins (+6) at Eagles

2018 Straight-Up: 118-72-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 87-97-8

4 weeks left in the regular season, lets close on a high note.

Jaguars at Titans (-5.5)

• Jaguars 30, Titans 9
• 2-0 to start the week!

Panthers (-1.5) at Browns

• Panthers need to win this one much more than the Browns do
• Due to win after multiple narrow losses
• Could be a sucker pick (62% on CAR as of Friday), but the Panthers are the better team and need this one, they win by a TD

Saints at Bucs (+9.5)

• Panthers are up and down but are currently on a good play streak
• Prior to last week, Bucs were only team to have beat Saints this season
• Bucs getting a lot of points, they’ll cover at home, but the Saints will get back in the win column

Colts at Texans (-4.5)

• No one is slowing down the Texans right now
• Colts looked great during 5 game win streak, but none of the teams they beat are going to the playoffs
• If this spread was a little bigger, I may take Colts, but I’m with Texans by a TD to cover

Giants (-3.5) at Redskins

• Public hammering the Giants (77% as of Friday), so I really don’t like this pick
• However, the Redskins are more dead than Darby O’Gills
• Redskins could not do anything the other night once they turned to Mark Sanchez
• Giants playing better
• Hate to take what feels like the obvious pick, but I have Giants by a TD

Ravens at Chiefs (-6.5)

• Lamar Jackson is 3-0, but all of those teams will miss the playoffs
• Chiefs are his first tough opponent
• Chiefs first home game in awhile, they return home to win by 2 TDs over the Ravens
• Lets go Mahomes! (fantasy)

Falcons at Packers (-4.5)

• Just feels right that the Packers will roll in first game without McCarthy
• Falcons losing to everyone
• Rodgers balls out with McCarthy gone, Packers win easily

Jets at Bills (-3.5)

• Public hammering Bills (73% as of Friday), so could be a sucker pick
• But this feels like the right pick in my mind
• Bills have been playing competitive football of late a destroyed the Jets just a few weeks ago
• Bills win by a TD

Patriots at Dolphins (+7.5)

• Tom Brady’s annual hell- Pats have lost 4 of last 5 in Miami
• Miami could lowkey steal the 6 seed
• Dolphins keep it close here like they always do, but Patriots are heating up and win

Broncos (-3.5) at 49ers

• Don’t think it’ll be a blowout, but not sure how this spread is so low
• Broncos have been heating up at the perfect time, Niners are headed towards the No. 1 pick
• Broncos win by 10

Bengals at Chargers (-14)

• These two teams could not be going in more opposite of directions
• Chargers still trying to win the division
• Chargers win in a rout, and cover

Lions at Cardinals (+3)

• Josh Rosen wants to build off of last week’s huge upset
• Lions have fallen apart
• Young teams like the Cardinals are either trying to tank at this time of year or build for next season- they’re going for the latter
• Cardinals get the upset win at home

Steelers at Raiders (+10)

• Steelers have really struggled of late and tend to struggle as big favorites
• Raiders have been playing a little better of late
• Steelers are the much better team so I definitely like them to win, but Raiders fight to keep it within 10

Eagles at Cowboys (-3.5)

• This is a big rivalry game, so not gonna call it a lock, but I have no clue how this spread is so low
• Cowboys are hot, just beat arguably the league’s best team, and the Eagles have looked underwhelming all season
• Eagles D is banged up and Cowboys offense has played better since adding Amari Cooper
• Cowboys win by a TD in this big NFC East matchup

Rams at Bears (+3)

• Bears getting Mitch back and want to secure their division
• Rams still chasing top seed, but have locked up division already
• Feels like this game means more to Bears
• Spread is so low that this feels like a trap, public hammering Rams
• Bears earn a close upset win at home

Vikings (+3) at Seahawks

• Really tough pick, these two teams are so even
• Vikings pick is almost a gut feeling, Kirk needs to finally win a game that justifies his pay day
• Expecting a really close game, but the overall better roster in the Vikings gets the upset win on the road

That’s it for Week 14. Can the Cowboys defense keep it up?

When looking back at my picks this season, Week 12 will be one I remember…

…cause it was arguably my best week to date.

While this was not my best week against the spread, it was my best week overall. I went a good but not great 8-7 against the spread, but tied a season high going 12-3 outright. If you’re a degenerate gambler like my friend Jack Dugan and took all these picks, you would’ve made a lot of money. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red):

Bears at Lions (+3)

Redskins at Cowboys (-7)

Falcons (+13) at Saints

Patriots (-13) at Jets

Raiders at Ravens (-13)

Giants at Eagles (-5)

49ers at Bucs (-1.5)

Browns at Bengals (Pick ‘Em)

Seahawks at Panthers (-3)

• Thanks Bert, this one HURT. Had a 3 team parlay (Pats, Ravens, Panthers). Russell Wilson murders me with a 40 yard TD on 4th down and then a game winning drive. Graham Gano also screws me with his missed field goal late in the game. Can’t complain too much though, he did beat the Giants with a 63 yarder earlier this year.

Jaguars at Bills (+3)

Cardinals (+14) at Chargers

Dolphins at Colts (-9)

Steelers at Broncos (+3)

Packers at Vikings (-3.5)

• While my pick won, this game is a perfect example of why you shouldn’t bet cause you can get so lucky or unlucky sometimes. Instead of taking a field goal to basically lock the spread cover, the Vikings go for it on 4th down to try and seal the game but don’t convert. Now Aaron Rodgers gets the ball back with a chance to cover the spread by half a point, but misses a wide open Davante Adams in the end zone. This pick got some good luck after getting some terrible luck just a few moments earlier.

Titans at Texans (-3.5)

• Switched my pick to Texans spread as it dropped from 6.5 to 3.5. Smart change.

2018 Straight-Up: 108-66-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 82-86-8

Time to take a bat to your bookmaker again in Week 13.

Cowboys (+7.5) at Saints

• Cowboys 13, Saints 10
• Wanted to take the Cowboys outright too, but feared the Saints crushing them and looking like an idiot. The Boys are now 2-0 outright as 7 point dogs this year. 
• 1-1 to start the week, couldn’t be happier about that. Who Dak? 

Ravens at Falcons (-1)

• Falcons are too talented to keep losing as much as they have
• Falcons losing to the Saints by 14 doesn’t tell the whole story- they fumbled in the red zone 3 times
• Lamar Jackson is 2-0, but both were at home against the lowly Bengals and Raiders
• Falcons win by a score

Bears (-3.5) at Giants

• This isn’t a knock on Trubisky, but I think the Bears’ unique offense can work with a backup too
• Any hope for the Giants pretty much ended with second half collapse at Philadelphia
• Bears force at least 2 turnovers, win by at least a TD over the Giants

Cardinals at Packers (-14)

• Packers have lost 4 of their last 5, and all 4 were on the road against better teams
• Only win in that stretch was against a Dolphins team led by Brock at home
• Packers return home and refind their groove against a weak Cardinals by winning AND covering

Rams at Lions (+10)

• Public hammering road Rams (79% as of Friday)
• Rams are 1-5-2 over their last 8 ATS
• Lions are good enough of a home team that they shouldn’t be getting 10 points
• Rams win by a TD but Lions cover

Broncos (-5.5) at Bengals

• Broncos hitting their stride at the right time
• Bengals looked hopeless last week, and now Andy Dalton is done for the season
• Public hammering Denver (75% as of Friday) so this could be a sucker pick, but think Broncos win by a TD to barely cover

Browns (+5.5) at Texans

• Don’t think the Browns make the playoffs, but they are hitting stride at the perfect time to build for 2019 success
• Winners of 8 straight, Texans are due for a loss, or at least a close game
• Texans are coming off an emotional win in their first game since owner Bob McNair died
• Texans win by a field goal, Browns cover

Bills at Dolphins (-3.5)

• Easy pick in my mind
• Sean McDermott has done a great job based on the talent his team has, but lack of talent is why the Bills haven’t been consistent week to week
• With Ryan Tannehill back, Dolphins should have won at hot Colts team
• Dolphins cover at home, win by 7-10 points

Colts (-4) at Jaguars

• Public hammering Indy (75% as of Friday), so could be a sucker pick
• However, Cody Kessler does not give the Jags a better chance than Blake Bortles would
• Colts stay hot, win by a TD to barely cover

Panthers at Bucs (+3.5)

• Upset pick of the week
• The Bucs and their QBs have been so up and down, I think they’re currently on a Jameis Winston up swing
• Public hammering Carolina (72% as of Friday)
• Bucs edge out a close win at home

Chiefs (-15) at Raiders

• While I’m picking the Chiefs to cover, don’t think it will be a complete blowout cause the Raiders have looked a little better (emphasis on a little) the last few weeks
• Raiders will fight in the first half to keep it close, but Chiefs are way too talented and pull away late to cover as well

Jets at Titans (-9)

• Titans have fallen flat on their face last 2 weeks on the road
• Smacked the Pats last time they were at home, they’re an up and down team
• Jets have really struggled of late
• Titans win by 2 TDs

Vikings (+5) at Patriots

• Think this will be a close game and spread is extremely accurate
• Public hammering Pats (66% as of Friday)
• Vikings need to turn a corner at this time of year
• Think Pats win by a FG with Vikings covering
• Could change my pick if spread moves more in Vikings direction, so be sure to check my final pick on Twitter @mikejmcgon

49ers at Seahawks (-10)

• Seahawks are hitting their stride at the right time
• Niners appear to be looking towards a top draft pick
• Not as much of a blowout as many will predict, but Hawks win by 2 TDs to cover

Chargers at Steelers (-3)

• As much as the Chargers have impressed, think most would agree the Steelers are the better team
• Steelers need a home win badly after last 2 road games have come down to the goal line
• The score will be much closer, but think the Steelers win easily the same way they did against the Panthers at home

Redskins (+6) at Eagles

• 9 of Eagles’ 11 games have been decided by 7 or less
• Eagles really didn’t even look good last week, they were just the better team than the Giants
• Redskins are no threat, but showed last week they can compete and are coming off extra rest
• Colt McCoy couldn’t repeat his Dallas magic, can he repeat his Monday Night magic?
• Eagles are better and at home so they win by a FG but Redskins cover

That’s it for Week 13, be back for Week 14. Will the Redskins lose the cover in heartbreaking fashion on Monday Night again?

Well, that was fun.

One of the most anticipated regular season games I can ever remember not only lived up to the hype, but well exceeded it. I think everyone other than Rams fans were praying this masterpiece would not end and go to OT. Not only did these teams both go off offensively, but both scored defensive touchdowns, including 2 by the Rams. Barring a miraculous run by the Cowboys, there’s no doubt that I want a Chiefs-Rams or Chiefs-Saints matchup in the Super Bowl.

As for my picks, it was a bit of a weird week, but overall a good one record wise. I went 8-5 outright, and a wild 6-3-4 against the spread. 4 pushes! Here’s a look bad at the picks I made (correct pick in blue, incorrect pick in red, push in green):

Packers at Seahawks (-3)

Texans (-3) at Redskins

Bengals (+6.5) at Ravens

Steelers at Jaguars (+4)

Panthers at Lions (+4)

Cowboys (+3.5) at Falcons

Titans at Colts (-1.5)

Bucs (+3) at Giants

Raiders at Cardinals (-4.5)

Broncos (+7) at Chargers

Eagles (+7) at Saints

Vikings at Bears (-2.5)

Chiefs at Rams (-3)

2018 Straight-Up: 96-63-2, 2018 vs. Spread: 74-79-8

Thankful for football and winning money gambling.

Bears at Lions (+3)

• Bears 23, Lions 16
• Bet on this pick, not thankful for Matt Staford’s Pick 6 and other INT in the end zone in the 4th quarter

Redskins at Cowboys (-7)

• Cowboys 31, Redskins 23
• Thankful for Amari Cooper and the refs missing the helmet to helmet call late to preserve the Cowboys cover

Falcons (+13) at Saints

• Saints 31, Falcons 17
• Not thankful for losing the cover by 1 point with the Falcons fumbling in the red zone 3 times
• 2-1 outright and 1-2 against the spread to start the week

Patriots (-10.5) at Jets

• Vegas may lose a lot of money on this one; 90% of the public is on the Pats as of Saturday
• These matchups are usually close, but the Jets have fallen hard of late, and the Pats are coming off a bad loss and then they bye; two situations in which they usually play great after
• Could be a major sucker pick, but I have the Pats winning by 14+

Raiders at Ravens (-10.5)

• The Ravens have not been very strong of late, but I like anyone when they’re playing the Raiders
• Avoid taking this game though as rookie Lamar Jackson will be starting again for the Ravens, and you can never trust the Raiders
• Not a complete blowout, but Ravens win by 14 or so to cover

Giants at Eagles (-4.5)

• Will be pulling hard for the Giants in this one, so hope I’m wrong, but I love this pick
• Before their blowout loss to the Saints, the Eagles blowout win over the Giants was their only game all season decided by more than 7 points
• Giants offense has looked good the last two weeks, but their defense hasn’t, and we shouldn’t overreact to 3 point wins over the Niners and Bucs
• Eagles win by 2 TDs

49ers at Bucs (-2.5)

• Don’t think it will be a blowout, but love this pick
• You’re giving me the better team, at home, laying less than 3 points, I’m gonna take it
• Jameis Winston will finally play a good game after his second half performance last week, Bucs win by a TD

Browns at Bengals (-2.5)

• Same as my last pick: you’re giving me the better team, at home, laying less than 3 points, I’m gonna take it
• AJ Green out hurts, but the Browns are also winless on the road this year
• Bengals win by less than a TD, but enough to cover

Seahawks at Panthers (-3) 

• How many times do I have to say it? You’re giving me the better team, at home, only laying 3 points, I’m gonna take it
• In addition, we all know the Seahawks aren’t great on the road, while the Panthers are low key great at home; 5-0 on the season
• Panthers get back in the groove and win by a TD

Jaguars at Bills (+3)

• Upset alert
• As crazy as this sounds, these two teams matched up in playoffs last season; teams looking to avenge 2017 playoff loses are 5-1 in those matchups this season, including 5 straight since the Eagles opening night win over the Falcons
• Jaguars played in their Super Bowl last week, they’ll take a step back this week and Josh Allen will lead the Bills to the home win in his return

Cardinals (+13) at Chargers

• Including the London game, the Chargers are just 1-4 ATS at home this season; perfect example of a good team who has no home field advantage
• Cardinals covered big spread against the Chiefs the last time they were big underdogs at an AFC West team
• Chargers comfortably win by around 10 but Cardinals cover

Dolphins at Colts (-7.5)

• With the same exact spread, I see this game going similar to the Dolphins-Texans game earlier this season
• Dolphins will compete with Ryan Tannehill back, but Colts have been playing too strong lately and will keep that up
• Colts win by 10-14 points, enough to cover

Steelers at Broncos (+3)

• Upset alert
• Broncos have had some tough losses this year, 4 of their 6 losses are by a combined 16 points
• I see them building off last week’s impressive upset at the Chargers
• Steelers have won 6 in a row, and I think they’re due for a loss after a 16 point second half comeback in a desperate revenge spot against the Jagaurs
• Broncos win by less than a score

Packers at Vikings (-3)

• Public hammering Packers, 72% as of Saturday
• Really not sure why; Packers are 0-4 outright and 1-3 ATS on the road this season (only win was the Todd Gurley debacle), also are winless as underdogs this season
• Vikings are the better team, at home, only laying 3, if it isn’t clear based on my prior picks, I’m taking the Vikings by a score

Titans (+6) at Texans

• Titans coming off a bad loss against a team that isn’t that much better than them, meaning they’re undervalued
• Public hammering Texans (65% as of Saturday)
• Titans beat the Texans as underdogs earlier this season
• Titans keep it close to cover but the Texans win their 8th straight by a field goal

That’s all for Week 12. Can the Broncos score another magical upset at home against the Steelers?