McGon’s Picks: NFL Week 16

Week 15 was one of the most chaotic weeks of NFL Football in recent years…

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…so chaotic, that every single favorite won.

Yes, that’s right. For just the third time since 1970, every single favorite won this past week. This was very reflective in my straight up record (13-3). Based on when I made the picks, Rams over Seahawks was an upset, but the line moved from Seahawks by 2 to a Pick ‘Em by game time. There were a lot of big spreads this weekend, which led to a lot of favorites winning. However, at the same time, the spreads were tough, and I went just 6-7-3 against the spread. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (winning team in red, spread winner in red):

Broncos at Colts (+2.5) 

  • Broncos 25, Colts 13- This pick was actually looking pretty good, until Trevor Siemian went down for the Broncos. In came the Brocketship, who looked like 2015 Brock to lead the Broncos to the comeback win.

Bears (+5.5) at Lions

  • Lions 20, Bears 10- This spread and winner came close to hitting, until Mitch Trubisky threw a terrible pick to end any comeback chance for the Bears. The Lions are in decent position to steal the last Wild Card spot.

Chargers at Chiefs (+1)

Dolphins at Bills (-3.5)

  • Note: This spread was made after it was announced Tyrod Taylor would start for the Bills. Once it was, I made my pick. 

Packers at Panthers (-3) 

Ravens at Browns (+7)

  • Ravens 27, Browns 10- After finishing 0-8 at home, is there any hope for a Browns win? As for the Ravens, they keep looking more and more like they will be a playoff team.

Texans at Jaguars (-10.5)

Bengals at Vikings (-10.5)

Jets at Saints (-15)

  • Saints 31, Jets 19- The Jets proved once again in Week 15 that they won’t go down without a fight. Also, shoutout to anyone who had the under, as Mark Ingram’s long TD hit the over, and had he been tackled, the game would have ended and the under would have hit.

Eagles (-7.5) at Giants

  • Eagles 34, Giants 29- The Eagles defense has some questions to answer, but what a performance by Nick Foles in his first start for the team since 2014. The Giants continue to find it impossible to reach the 30 point mark.

Cardinals at Redskins (-4)  

Rams at Seahawks (-2)

  • Rams 42, Seahawks 7- I think everyone can agree that we didn’t see this coming. What an unbelievably impressive performance by the Rams. Some people think this Seahawks dynasty is over, but I’m not buying that just yet. They have plenty of injuries on the defensive side of the ball, and if they can improve the rest of the offense besides Russell Wilson, they will still have a chance to be great next year.

Patriots at Steelers (+3)  

  • Patriots 27, Steelers 24- God. Dammit. I don’t think I’ve ever been so mad about a game that I did not have action on and did not impact the Cowboys in any way. I don’t think the call was wrong, the rule just sucks. Especially with Tony Romo on the call, this felt like the Dez catch all over again. The New England Patriots continue to get more lucky breaks than any sports franchise ever. Are they the best? Yes. But also the luckiest time and time again. Big Ben made an absolutely idiotic throw which then popped right up into the Patriots’ hands for a pick to end the game. Un-freaking-believable. This country needs the Patriots to lose in the playoffs this season (unless it’s to the Eagles).

Titans at 49ers (-2)

  • 49ers 22, Titans 20- A game winning field goal for the straight up win and a push against the spread.

Cowboys (-3) at Raiders

  • Cowboys 20, Raiders 17- After the Anthony Brown dropped pick and the Jourdan Lewis pass interference, it was a script I’ve seen so many times with my teams, a win taken away at the last second. WHAT A MIRACLE to then have the opposite happen to Raiders fans.

Falcons (-6.5) at Buccaneers

  • Falcons 24, Buccaneers 21- The Bucs played like many thought they were capable of coming into the year. Devonta Freeman did great for the Falcons, but it’s clear the Matt Ryan of 2017 is not nearly the Matt Ryan of 2016.

2017 Straight-Up: 149-75, 2017 Vs. Spread: 110-105-9

Merry Christmas, folks (hopefully no one reports this blog for being insensitive to those who don’t celebrate).

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Colts at Ravens (-13.5) 

  • As the season comes to a close, these two teams could not be going in more opposite directions. The Ravens were under performing, but now look headed towards a playoff berth. The Colts played some competitive football early on, but have really fallen off since. I think this opposite direction will show on Saturday and the Ravens will crush the Colts.

Vikings at Packers (+9) 

  • Welcome back to Lambeu, Aar- wait he’s done for the year again. Now that their chances are done, the Packers won’t be sending out #12 on Saturday night. However, with Brett Hundley getting more comfortable at QB in his last few games, I think he will do enough to help the Packers cover at home in this rivalry game. However, the Vikings are too good right now, and they will get the win.

Buccaneers at Panthers (-10)

  • The Panthers have put their early season inconsistencies behind, and are soaring towards a playoff berth. After nearly pulling one out on Monday Night, the Bucs are banged up and will have one less day of rest. I expect the Panthers to easily win and cover to lock up their 4th playoff berth in 5 seasons.

Browns (+6.5) at Bears

  • I’m not giving up on Cleveland to get a win. They say even the best teams can’t have a perfect season in a professional sports league. Well I’m going to argue vice versa for the Browns… but not this week. The Browns will fight hard and cover in their second to last game, but the Bears will edge out a win at home.

Lions at Bengals (+3.5) 

  • Is this going to happen? I’m not sure, but the Cowboys need it to and I’m gonna stay optimistic for the Bengals. The Bengals know they can’t have a performance nearly as embarrassing as the last two in Marvin Lewis’s last home game. The Bengals will get it together and upset the Lions at home. We all know and agree that the Detroit Lions CANNOT have nice things.

Dolphins at Chiefs (-10.5) 

  • While I don’t know if they will return to their early season form, the Chiefs are winning again at the right time and will look to lock up the AFC West this Sunday. The Dolphins returned to their expected form last Sunday, and I don’t think that will change this Sunday in Kansas City. The Chiefs won’t blow them out, but they will do enough to cover at home.

Bills at Patriots (-12)

  • The Bills just clinched at the very least a .500 season, and if they win out, they will be in. But you know what? No one circles the wagons like the Buffalo Bills! The Patriots will return home after a tough road trip and win and cover over a team that they constantly do so against.

Falcons at Saints (-6) 

  • The Saints know that they missed a great opportunity just two weeks ago in Atlanta, and as the better team, I don’t think they squander the opportunity again. This matchup is commonly won by the home team as well, so I’m definitely taking the Saints. I think the Panthers are better than the Falcons, and seeing how they struggled in New Orleans just a few weeks ago, I’m taking the Saints to cover as well.

Chargers at Jets (+6.5)

  • The Chargers need a miracle to win the division, but they still have a great shot at a Wild Card. The Chargers are the better team and really need this one, so I’m gonna take them to win. However, this Jets team is tough, especially at home. I considered taking the Jets in an upset, but I’m sticking with the Chargers, and taking the Jets to cover.

Rams (-6.5) at Titans

  • After the Rams annihilated the Seahawks in a place where they rarely lose, let alone get blow out, I think this Rams train keeps on rolling. The Titans have fallen apart, and even though the Rams have been great all season, they seem more than ever to be coming together at the right time. The Titans won’t feel as bad as the Seahawks did last week, but they still won’t win or cover.

Broncos at Redskins (-3) 

  • If Brock Osweiler comes in and plays like he did last week, expect the Broncos to win on the road. However, I don’t trust the Brocketship nearly enough to do that again. Expect a close, low scoring game, with the Redskins edging out a win by one score, and enough to cover.

Jaguars (-4.5) at 49ers

  • It’s hard not to be impressed by what the 49ers have done over the last three weeks. However, this Jaguars team is way too good right now. Jimmy G will face his first real defensive test, and while I don’t think he’ll fail, I don’t think it will be enough. The EVEN week Jaguars will keep on rolling into the playoffs by winning and covering in Santa Clara.

Giants at Cardinals (-3.5) 

  • The Giants played well last week, but that was by far their best offensive performance of the season. The Cardinals are not an exciting team at all, but they have been better this season than they have been given credit for. In one of the least relevant games of the year, the Cardinals will win a close, low scoring game, and will cover as well.

Seahawks at Cowboys (-5)

  • Every week I say you can’t doubt the Seahawks, but this season is looking more and more like a bump in the road for this talented group. With Ezekiel Elliott coming back, I’m expecting this offense to look a lot more like last years, and the one that looked like one of the best in the NFL during their three game winning streak before the suspension. This will be by no means close to the score of last weeks Rams-Seahawks game, but my Cowboys will win and cover over Bert’s Seahawks in the BTB Bowl.

Steelers (-9) at Texans

  • With the Steelers tendency to play down to their opponent, as well as the loss of Antonio Brown, I’m expecting this to be a one score game for much of the contest. However, the Texans have completely mailed it in, and the Steelers still have a shot at the top seed if the Pats happen to lose. The Steelers will pull away late to win and cover on Christmas.

Raiders at Eagles (-9) 

  • While last week showed the Eagles vulnerability on defense, it also showed that Nick Foles could be the perfect answer. Nick Foles greatest game as Eagles QB came against the Raiders four years ago, and I’m expecting him to find success in his first home start in his second stint as Eagles QB. The Raiders will score, but the Eagles will do a lot more of that as they will win and cover on Christmas night.

That’s it for this week, be back next week for the regular season finale. What will we see on Christmas this year that we had never seen before?

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