Week 4 was a crazy one in the NFL…
…and games are becoming unpredictable. This is both good and bad. It’s bad for betting and making picks, as the team who looked great or bad last week may have a complete reversal of fortune the following week(s). But it’s great because the NFL has become even more exciting to watch. This could be that year where two completely random teams end up meeting in the Super Bowl, it’s been that unpredictable. I knew going into last week nothing was going to be any different, as 9 of the 16 games had spreads that were 3.5 points or less. Anything can happen in those kinds of games, and that did not work well for me. Last week was my worst to date, and the craziness continued as I actually did better against the spread (7-9) than straight up (6-10). In addition, this week could not have ended any crazier for betting, as this play not only helped the Chiefs cover, but also pushed the game to cover the over.
Let’s just say thank God I had no wagers involved on this one. Here’s a look back at the picks I made (winning team in red, spread winner in red):
Bears at Packers (-7)
Saints at Dolphins (+3) (London)
Rams at Cowboys (-6.5)
Bills at Falcons (-8)
Bengals at Browns (+3)
Lions at Vikings (EVEN)
Panthers (+9) at Patriots
Jaguars (-3.5) at Jets
Steelers at Ravens (+3)
Titans at Texans (+1.5)
49ers (+7) at Cardinals
Eagles at Chargers (+1.5)
Giants (+3) at Buccaneers
Raiders at Broncos (-2.5)
Colts (+13) at Seahawks
Redskins (+7) at Chiefs
2017 Straight Up: 40-23, 2017 vs. Spread: 30-32-1
Onto the craziness of Week 5.
Patriots (-6) at Buccaneers
- Honestly, I’m shocked this spread is this big based on how the Patriots have played, but I think they will cover it anyway. The Patriots last responded to a home loss with an easy road win against an NFC South opponent, so I think Brady and Co. will do the same this week. Even if they end up being not as good this year, is there anyone who does not think the Patriots will at the very least win the AFC East?
Bills at Bengals (-3)
- The Bills have had a great start to the season, and are coming off a very impressive road win against a Falcons team that is definitely better than the Bengals. However, the Bengals have found their stride the last two games, and this is their first home game since. I expect that this time the Bills will not have as much success on the road, and the Bengals will win and cover.
Jets (+1) at Browns
- Through two weeks, it looked as if the Browns would be a much more competitive team this year. However, they could not have taken a larger downfall than they have the last two weeks. The exact opposite can be said about the Jets, who are now 2-2. Myles Garrett may be making his debut, but I like the Jets to continue this little streak and get the upset win in Cleveland.
Panthers at Lions (-2.5)
- Outside of the Rams, the Lions have had the most surprising and impressive start to this season, and they were a yard away from still being undefeated. The Panthers had a very impressive win last week at New England, but their season has been up and down so far. I like the Lions to continue to dominate this season, winning and covering at home.
49ers at Colts (-1.5)
- The Colts have looked much better offensively since naming Jacoby Brissett their starting QB. The 49ers have lost each of their last 3 games by 3 points or less, but every week, their opponent is just slightly better. I think the same trend will continue this week, and the Colts will win a one score game, but enough to cover.
Titans at Dolphins
Note: The spread has not been released yet due to the Titans QB situation, but I’m going to assume Matt Cassel will be starting.
- As a Cowboys fan, I know what having Matt Cassel as your QB means. It means a lot of bad passes, a lot of trips to the Red Zone that end with a field goal, and a lot of close losses, regardless of the skill of the opponent. In addition, they got absolutely embarrassed in Houston last weekend. The Dolphins have only scored 6 point the last two games, but I still like them to win their first game in Miami against a Titans team starting Matt Cassel (if you’re going to watch any of the videos I’ve posted, this is the one).
Chargers at Giants (-3.5)
- Talk about a shit show heading to the Meadowlands. A matchup between two teams that should be better than 0-4 going for their first wins should actually be decently entertaining. Throw in the Eli Manning-Phillip Rivers connection, it makes it even more interesting. This game is gonna have a great mix of great plays and complete bonehead plays, but ultimately I think the Giants win a close one, and enough to cover.
Cardinals (+6.5) at Eagles
- The Cardinals describe the perfect .500 team. Plays down to their worst opponents, yet stays competitive with the best ones. The latter is what we have this weekend, and with the Eagles tendency to play close games as well, I think the Eagles get the win at home, but the Cardinals cover.
Jaguars (+8) at Steelers
- Do odd numbered weeks favor the Jags? They have won two blowouts outside of Jacksonville in Weeks 1 and 3, while getting crushed at home against the Titans and losing on the road to the Jets in Weeks 2 and 4, respectively. I think the odd-week Jaguars continue as they will cover, but not have enough to win in Pittsburgh.
Ravens (+2.5) at Raiders
- Really tough matchup to pick here. On one hand you hand the Ravens who have looked awful the last two weeks. On the other, the Raiders looked awful at the end of last season without Derek Carr. The Raiders may have some trouble scoring, and I think Flacco and the Ravens do enough to get an ugly upset in Oakland.
Seahawks at Rams (-1.5)
- Before the season, I picked the Rams to win this matchup because the Seahawks have lost on the road against them each of the last two seasons. But now, the Rams offense may be for real. They will face a very big test against Seattle’s D and their offense which may finally be finding its groove. But I like the Rams to get a get a big win at home and prove they are finally for real this year.
Packers at Cowboys (-2)
- For the second straight week, the Cowboys will face a team coming off extended rest from a Thursday night game. However, the Packers got pretty banged up against the Bears. The last time these teams met, the Packers won by 3 as an extremely hot team. Right now, the Packers are not as good as that team was, and the Cowboys will be looking to avenge a team that has bounced them in each of their last two playoff appearances. I like the Cowboys to win and cover at home.
Chiefs at Texans (+1)
- The Chiefs have undoubtedly been the strongest team in the NFL so far this season. However, the Texans have been a significantly different team since starting DeShaun Watson as QB. The team who put up less than 10 in Week 1 put up over 50 last week. I think the Chiefs unbeaten run ends and the Texans pick up the upset win at home.
Vikings at Bears
Note: The spread has not been released due to the Vikings QB situation.
- The highest drafted QB from the last draft, Mitchell Trubisky, makes his debut for the Bears. As a QB who only played one year in college, has a rough team around him, and is playing an elite defense I don’t like his chances in his debut. No matter who is playing QB, I like the Vikings to win a low scoring game.
Be back for Week 6. Will the Giants and Chargers BOTH still be winless?